Barnechea 1–0 Recoleta: Result & Stats | Primera B

Barnechea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Recoleta

5/16/2023

Primera B · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Barnechea44%

×Draw27%

Recoleta29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchRecoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Barnechea

1.40

Recoleta

1.07

Barnechea creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 70 away

1.50

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Barnechea

1.50

Recoleta

0.94

allows per match

Barnechea

1.21

Recoleta

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

71%

Barnechea or Recoleta

73%

Draw or Recoleta

56%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

21%

Recoleta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

75%

Barnechea 2+ goals

41%

Barnechea 3+ goals

17%

Recoleta 1+ goals

66%

Recoleta 2+ goals

29%

Recoleta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

61%

Recoleta (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnechea scores more

44%

level

27%

Recoleta scores more

29%

Barnechea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff