Barnechea 0–1 Nublense: Result & Stats | Primera B

Barnechea

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nublense

M. Silva 72'

2/23/2018

Primera B · Round 4Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea (Santiago de Chile)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Barnechea39%

×Draw27%

Nublense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Barnechea

1.31

Nublense

1.19

Barnechea creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 35 away

1.50

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Barnechea

1.50

Nublense

1.17

allows per match

Barnechea

1.21

Nublense

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

66%

Barnechea or Nublense

73%

Draw or Nublense

61%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

18%

Nublense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

73%

Barnechea 2+ goals

38%

Barnechea 3+ goals

14%

Nublense 1+ goals

70%

Nublense 2+ goals

33%

Nublense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

54%

Nublense (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Nublense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nublense attack 1.17 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnechea scores more

39%

level

27%

Nublense scores more

34%

Barnechea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

B. Rodríguez← A. Luttecke

71'

M. Rivera← C. Muñoz

72'

M. Silva

83'

C. Bustamante← M. Prieto

83'

M. Arrúa← S. Varas

89'

I. Ferrada← N. Croce

Barnechea

Nublense

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Norambuena

71'▲B. Rodríguez←▼A. Luttecke

71'▲M. Rivera←▼C. Muñoz

Barnechea substitutes

RodríguezRiveraMoewesHernándezMuñozVenegasRiveros

Manager: E. Astorga

83'▲C. Bustamante←▼M. Prieto

83'▲M. Arrúa←▼S. Varas

89'▲I. Ferrada←▼N. Croce

Nublense substitutes

BustamanteArrúaFerradaCabreraTapiaBugueñoDesfadur

Primera B: Barnechea 0–1 Nublense

Nublense beat Barnechea 1-0 in Primera B on February 23, 2018.

Goals: M. Silva (72').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea (Santiago de Chile).

Barnechea vs Nublense — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Barnechea 0–1 Nublense