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Barnechea vs Magallanes — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Magallanes
Magallanes
9/15/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Barnechea41%
×Draw27%
Magallanes32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.35
Magallanes
1.17

Barnechea creates 15% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 105 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
Magallanes
1.13

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
Magallanes
1.21

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
68%
Barnechea or Magallanes
73%
Draw or Magallanes
59%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
19%
Magallanes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
74%
Barnechea 2+ goals
39%
Barnechea 3+ goals
15%
Magallanes 1+ goals
69%
Magallanes 2+ goals
33%
Magallanes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
56%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Magallanes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barnechea scores more
41%
level
27%
Magallanes scores more
32%

Barnechea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnechea vs Magallanes

Magallanes beat Barnechea 2-0 in Primera B on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.