Barnechea 2–1 Magallanes: Result & Stats

Barnechea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Magallanes

L. Garate 36' (pen)

F. Castro 15'

D. Bielkiewicz 12'

11/25/2020

Primera B · Round 22Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Barnechea41%

×Draw27%

Magallanes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Barnechea

1.35

Magallanes

1.17

Barnechea creates 15% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 105 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Barnechea

1.50

Magallanes

1.13

allows per match

Barnechea

1.21

Magallanes

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

68%

Barnechea or Magallanes

73%

Draw or Magallanes

59%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

19%

Magallanes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

74%

Barnechea 2+ goals

39%

Barnechea 3+ goals

15%

Magallanes 1+ goals

69%

Magallanes 2+ goals

33%

Magallanes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

56%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Magallanes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barnechea scores more

41%

level

27%

Magallanes scores more

32%

Barnechea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

F. Castro

12'

D. Bielkiewicz

15'

F. Castro

36'

L. GaratePenalty

46'

D. Rosende← G. Santelices

46'

53'

62'

67'

67'

C. Gainza← M. Arguinarena

76'

J. Ibarra← L. Garate

76'

C. Soza← D. Bielkiewicz

84'

87'

D. Rosende Lagos

88'

G. Cubillos← C. Muñoz

88'

J. Bandez← J. Duma

Barnechea

Magallanes

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Castro

⚽

▼

Garate

▼

Duma

Manager: Leo Zamora

67'▲N. Ortiz←▼F. Castro

67'▲C. Gainza←▼M. Arguinarena

76'▲J. Ibarra←▼L. Garate

88'▲G. Cubillos←▼C. Muñoz

88'▲J. Bandez←▼J. Duma

Barnechea substitutes

OrtizGainzaIbarraCubillosBandezSalaberryCordero

Manager: A. Pereyra

46'▲D. Rosende←▼G. Santelices

46'▲I. Vásquez←▼C. Pérez

62'▲M. Arenas←▼T. Jones

76'▲C. Soza←▼D. Bielkiewicz

Magallanes substitutes

RosendeVásquezArenasSozaAlfaroGonzálezTapia

Primera B: Barnechea 2–1 Magallanes

Barnechea beat Magallanes 2-1 in Primera B on November 25, 2020.

Goals: D. Bielkiewicz (12'), F. Castro (15'), L. Garate (36' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.

Barnechea vs Magallanes — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Barnechea 2–1 Magallanes