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Barnechea vs D. Puerto Montt — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
7/9/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Barnechea44%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.41
D. Puerto Montt
1.09

Barnechea creates 29% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 91 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
D. Puerto Montt
0.97

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
D. Puerto Montt
1.32

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
71%
Barnechea or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
56%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
21%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
76%
Barnechea 2+ goals
41%
Barnechea 3+ goals
17%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
66%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
30%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
60%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

D. Puerto Montt attack 0.97 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnechea scores more
44%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
29%

Barnechea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnechea vs D. Puerto Montt

Barnechea beat D. Puerto Montt 2-1 in Primera B on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.