Barnechea 0–3 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Barnechea

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

I. Morales 83'

C. Villanueva 71'

J. Parraguez 30'

7/21/2019

Copa Chile · 8th FinalsEstadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barnechea24%

×Draw23%

Colo Colo54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnecheaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.85

Barnechea

1.15

Colo Colo

1.85

Colo Colo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

2.04

1.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Barnechea

1.00

Colo Colo

2.04

allows per match

Barnechea

1.67

Colo Colo

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw

46%

Barnechea or Colo Colo

77%

Draw or Colo Colo

76%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+

9%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals

68%

Barnechea 2+ goals

32%

Barnechea 3+ goals

11%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

84%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

55%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)

31%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.00 + Colo Colo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Colo Colo attack 2.04 + Barnechea defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barnechea scores more

24%

level

23%

Colo Colo scores more

54%

Colo Colo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Parraguez

58'

M. Rivera← H. Sanhueza

60'

A. Luttecke← J. Duma

67'

A. Vilches← J. Parraguez

71'

C. Villanueva

73'

J. Valdés← C. Villanueva

74'

O. Belinetz← M. Briceño

81'

M. Bolados← G. Costa

83'

I. Morales

Barnechea

Colo

25

5

4

19

28

14

2

▼

Costa

17

Suazo

26

⚽

▼

Villanuev

22

⚽

▼

Parraguez

18

⚽

1

7

3

27

13

▼

Sanhueza

20

▼

6

16

15

10

▼

Duma

14

Oyarzo

Manager: R. Ávila

58'▲M. Rivera←▼H. Sanhueza

60'▲A. Luttecke←▼J. Duma

74'▲O. Belinetz←▼M. Briceño

Barnechea substitutes

17Rivera18Luttecke9Belinetz4Ortiz28Mèndez2Parancán24Pereyra

Manager: M. Salas

67'▲A. Vilches←▼J. Parraguez

73'▲J. Valdés←▼C. Villanueva

81'▲M. Bolados←▼G. Costa

Colo Colo substitutes

9Vilches20Valdés11Bolados27Provoste12Cortés29Ortiz3Alarcón