Barki Tajik vs Sardor Tursunzoda

Barki Tajik

Preview

13:00

Sardor Tursunzoda

9/18/2026

Vysshaya Liga · Round 17

47%

Barki Tajik

model favours

47%24%29%

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barki Tajik47%

×Draw24%

Sardor Tursunzoda29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barki TajikExpected goals in this matchSardor Tursunzoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.31

Barki Tajik

1.71

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.31

Barki Tajik creates 31% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

1.43

1.20

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Barki Tajik

1.13

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.43

allows per match

Barki Tajik

1.20

Sardor Tursunzoda

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw

71%

Barki Tajik or Sardor Tursunzoda

76%

Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda

53%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+

25%

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals

82%

Barki Tajik 2+ goals

51%

Barki Tajik 3+ goals

24%

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals

73%

Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals

38%

Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)

61%

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.13 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Barki Tajik defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barki Tajik scores more

47%

level

24%

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more

29%

Barki Tajik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Tajik

DWWLL

Tursunzoda

LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff