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Barki Tajik vs Eskhata — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eskhata
Eskhata
4/6/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Barki Tajik41%
×Draw25%
Eskhata34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
1.48
Eskhata
1.32

Barki Tajik creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
1.15
Eskhata
1.44

allows per match

Barki Tajik
1.21
Eskhata
1.80

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Eskhata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
66%
Barki Tajik or Eskhata
75%
Draw or Eskhata
59%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
20%
Eskhata wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
77%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
43%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
19%
Eskhata 1+ goals
73%
Eskhata 2+ goals
38%
Eskhata 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
55%
Eskhata (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.15 + Eskhata defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Eskhata attack 1.44 + Barki Tajik defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
41%
level
25%
Eskhata scores more
34%

Barki Tajik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barki Tajik vs Eskhata

Eskhata beat Barki Tajik 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 6, 2026.