Bari 1–1 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pescara

G. Maggiore 82'

A. Di Nardo 9'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bari48%

×Draw26%

Pescara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Bari

1.48

Pescara

1.02

Bari creates 45% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 72 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.08

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bari

1.26

Pescara

0.96

allows per match

Bari

1.08

Pescara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bari or draw

74%

Bari or Pescara

74%

Draw or Pescara

52%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

24%

Pescara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

77%

Bari 2+ goals

43%

Bari 3+ goals

19%

Pescara 1+ goals

64%

Pescara 2+ goals

27%

Pescara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

65%

Pescara (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.26 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pescara attack 0.96 + Bari defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bari scores more

48%

level

26%

Pescara scores more

26%

Bari at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

M. Dorval

Bari · M

9.5

Match Events

9'

A. Di Nardo↳ T. Corazza

30'

Giacomo OlzerCard upgrade

31'

Giacomo Olzer

35'

Mehdi Dorval

46'

G. Maggiore← F. Vicari

46'

C. Gytkjaer← M. Verreth

46'

R. Tonin← F. Tsadjout

56'

Antonio Di Nardo

59'

Gaetano Letizia

60'

Dimitrios Nikolaou

62'

Gaetano CastrovilliPenalty confirmed

65'

L. Meazzi← T. Corazza

67'

Andrea Meroni

69'

M. Antonucci← R. Pagano

69'

L. Cerri← G. Moncini

72'

Gaetano Castrovilli

73'

Matthias Braunöder

79'

R. Pucino← D. Nikolaou

79'

F. Caligara← L. Valzania

81'

Sebastiano Desplanches

82'

G. Maggiore↳ M. Dorval

88'

R. Capellini← A. Di Nardo

88'

L. Sgarbi← D. Faraoni

90+7'

Andrea Meroni

90+7'

Andrea Meroni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariPescara

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots15

2.33Expected Goals (xG)0.72

9Corners1

17Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target5

7Off Target7

1Blocked3

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box9

Passing

67%Possession33%

490Total Passes257

426Accurate Passes212

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls9

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

3Offsides3

Serie B: Bari 1–1 Pescara

Bari and Pescara drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Di Nardo (9'), G. Maggiore (82').

Bari controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Bari 1–1 Pescara