Bari 3–2 Cittadella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Cittadella

R. Maiello 45+2'

G. Sibilli 45' (pen)

K. Lasagna 5'

L. Pandolfi 55'

L. Carissoni 52'

11/24/2024

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Bari41%

×Draw29%

Cittadella31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

Bari

1.21

Cittadella

1.01

Bari creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 134 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

1.09

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Bari

1.23

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Bari

1.09

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bari or draw

69%

Bari or Cittadella

71%

Draw or Cittadella

59%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

18%

Cittadella wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

70%

Bari 2+ goals

34%

Bari 3+ goals

12%

Cittadella 1+ goals

64%

Cittadella 2+ goals

27%

Cittadella 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

57%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 82 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.23 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Bari defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bari scores more

41%

level

29%

Cittadella scores more

31%

Bari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Sibilli

Bari · F

8.7

Match Events

5'

K. Lasagna↳ G. Sibilli

38'

A. Favilli← K. Lasagna

43'

Mehdi Dorval

45'

G. SibilliPenalty

45+2'

R. Maiello↳ M. Dorval

46'

Luca Pandolfi

52'

L. Carissoni↳ S. Tronchin

55'

L. Pandolfi

58'

C. Falletti← G. Sibilli

59'

C. Favasuli← M. Dorval

62'

M. Ravasio← S. Rabbi

65'

C. Saco← A. Novakovich

66'

N. Lella← R. Maiello

71'

J. Desogus← S. Tronchin

71'

S. Negro← S. Piccinini

79'

C. Cassano← L. Pandolfi

79'

D. Voltan← A. Cecchetto

82'

83'

84'

85'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariCittadella

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots12

7Corners8

10Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target2

6Off Target7

3Blocked3

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

382Total Passes410

286Accurate Passes303

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0

Serie B: Bari 3–2 Cittadella

Bari beat Cittadella 3-2 in Serie B on November 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Lasagna (5'), G. Sibilli (45' pen), R. Maiello (45+2'), L. Carissoni (52'), L. Pandolfi (55').

Cittadella controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Bari 3–2 Cittadella