Bari 2–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benevento

M. Folorunsho 71'

M. Antenucci 54' (pen)

4/1/2023

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bari37%

×Draw28%

Benevento35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Bari

1.16

Benevento

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 78 away

1.25

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bari

1.25

Benevento

1.21

allows per match

Bari

1.05

Benevento

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bari or draw

65%

Bari or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

63%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

15%

Benevento wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

69%

Bari 2+ goals

32%

Bari 3+ goals

11%

Benevento 1+ goals

68%

Benevento 2+ goals

31%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

51%

Benevento (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 80 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.25 + Benevento defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Benevento attack 1.21 + Bari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bari scores more

37%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

35%

Bari at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Antenucci

Bari · F

7.7

Match Events

29'

Gennaro Acampora

33'

Mattia VivianiPenalty cancelled

36'

37'

39'

39'

39'

46'

G. Morachioli← M. Maita

53'

Frédéric Veseli

54'

M. AntenucciPenalty

64'

Mattia Viviani

66'

M. Folorunsho← W. Cheddira

66'

S. Nwankwo← S. Pettinari

69'

69'

71'

71'

76'

S. Molina← N. Bellomo

76'

Ž. Žužek← F. Vicari

76'

K. Kubica← A. Tello

89'

E. Matino← M. Antenucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariBenevento

Overview

67%Possession33%

12Total Shots11

3Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target1

6Off Target7

3Blocked3

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

67%Possession33%

546Total Passes271

483Accurate Passes196

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards2

0Offsides5