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Bari vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avellino
Avellino
M. Fedele 79', 51'
L. Castaldo 45+1'
12/17/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 19San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bari43%
×Draw27%
Avellino30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.37
Avellino
1.09

Bari creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bari
1.08
Avellino
0.43

allows per match

Bari
1.76
Avellino
1.66

finishing

Bari-0.16scores less
Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bari or draw
70%
Bari or Avellino
73%
Draw or Avellino
57%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
20%
Avellino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
75%
Bari 2+ goals
40%
Bari 3+ goals
16%
Avellino 1+ goals
66%
Avellino 2+ goals
30%
Avellino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
59%
Avellino (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 13 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.66 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.08 + Avellino defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Avellino attack 0.43 + Bari defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bari scores more
43%
level
27%
Avellino scores more
30%

Bari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
L. Castaldo↳ D. Verde
51'
M. Fedele
52'
G. De Luca← F. Fedato
54'
L. Crecco← N. Belloni
59'
Giuseppe De Luca
65'
Idrissa Camará← M. Ardemagni
70'
G. Castrovilli← F. Furlan
72'
Denis Tonucci
79'
M. Fedele
88'
B. Mokulu Tembe← W. Jidayi

Possession

54%Bari

Shots

12Bari

Statistics

BariAvellino
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots6
12Corners2
22Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots6
7On Target4
5Off Target2
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
22Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Bari 2 – 1 Avellino

Bari beat Avellino 2-1 in Serie B on December 17, 2016.

Goals: L. Castaldo (45+1'), M. Fedele (51', 79').

Bari controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at San Nicola in Bari.