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Avellino vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Avellino
Avellino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bari
Bari
M. Palumbo 79'
M. Besaggio 67'
4/24/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino55%
×Draw24%
Bari21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino
1.70
Bari
0.93

Avellino creates 83% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Avellino
1.53
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Avellino
1.15
Bari
1.86

finishing

Avellino-0.24scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avellino or draw
79%
Avellino or Bari
76%
Draw or Bari
45%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+
31%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals
82%
Avellino 2+ goals
51%
Avellino 3+ goals
24%
Bari 1+ goals
61%
Bari 2+ goals
24%
Bari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)
73%
Bari (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.53 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bari attack 0.72 + Avellino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avellino scores more
55%
level
24%
Bari scores more
21%

Avellino at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
D. SounasAvellinoAvellino · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
Cosimo Patierno
28'
Balla Moussa Mane
46'
G. De Pieri← M. Mane
66'
C. Gytkjaer← E. Rao
66'
M. Cuni← G. Moncini
67'
M. Besaggio↳ D. Sounas
71'
A. Favilli← C. Patierno
72'
Luca Palmiero
79'
M. Palumbo↳ A. Favilli
80'
N. Bellomo← D. Nikolaou
80'
F. Artioli← G. Maggiore
81'
Federico Artioli
86'
F. Missori← M. Besaggio
86'
G. Tutino← R. Russo
90+4'
A. Le Borgne← D. Sounas

Possession

60%Avellino

Shots

18Avellino

Pass accuracy

52%Avellino

Statistics

AvellinoBari
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots9
2.81Expected Goals (xG)0.51
8Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots9
6On Target0
10Off Target6
2Blocked3
14Inside Box4
4Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
489Total Passes324
414Accurate Passes255
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Avellino 2 – 0 Bari

Avellino beat Bari 2-0 in Serie B on April 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Besaggio (67'), M. Palumbo (79').

Avellino controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.