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Bari U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Bari U19
Bari U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
Unknown 68', 35'
Unknown 56', 40', 22'
10/28/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 6Campo Sportivo Comunale Sigismondo Palmiotta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bari U1926%
×Draw21%
Cesena U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari U19
1.47
Cesena U19
2.14

Cesena U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bari U19
1.51
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Bari U19
1.71
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Bari U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bari U19 or draw
47%
Bari U19 or Cesena U19
79%
Draw or Cesena U19
74%

Winning margin

Bari U19 wins by 2+
12%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bari U19 1+ goals
77%
Bari U19 2+ goals
43%
Bari U19 3+ goals
18%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
88%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
63%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bari U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari U19 attack 1.51 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Bari U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bari U19 scores more
26%
level
21%
Cesena U19 scores more
53%

Cesena U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
35'
40'
56'
68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Bari U19 2–3 Cesena U19

Cesena U19 beat Bari U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 28, 2023.

Goals: ? (22', 35', 40', 56', 68').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Sigismondo Palmiotta in Modugno.