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Barendrecht vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Barendrecht
Barendrecht
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VVOG
VVOG
2/25/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 23Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barendrecht55%
×Draw20%
VVOG25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barendrecht
2.24
VVOG
1.47

Barendrecht creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barendrecht
2.07
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Barendrecht
1.59
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw
75%
Barendrecht or VVOG
80%
Draw or VVOG
45%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+
33%
VVOG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals
89%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
65%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
38%
VVOG 1+ goals
77%
VVOG 2+ goals
43%
VVOG 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)
69%
VVOG (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.07 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.24

VVOG attack 1.35 + Barendrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barendrecht scores more
55%
level
20%
VVOG scores more
25%

Barendrecht at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barendrecht vs VVOG

Barendrecht beat VVOG 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 in Barendrecht.