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Barendrecht vs GVVV Veenendaal — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Barendrecht
Barendrecht
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
J. Jongman 51' (pen), 30', 3'
B. Burgering 90+3', 90+2', 87'
G. Sille 9'
5/27/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 34Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barendrecht31%
×Draw22%
GVVV Veenendaal47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barendrecht
1.56
GVVV Veenendaal
1.97

GVVV Veenendaal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barendrecht
2.07
GVVV Veenendaal
2.35

allows per match

Barendrecht
1.59
GVVV Veenendaal
1.06

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw
53%
Barendrecht or GVVV Veenendaal
78%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
69%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+
14%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals
79%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
46%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
21%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
86%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
58%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)
39%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.07 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

GVVV Veenendaal attack 2.35 + Barendrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barendrecht scores more
31%
level
22%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
47%

GVVV Veenendaal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Jongman
9'
G. Sille
30'
J. Jongman
51'
J. JongmanPenalty
87'
B. Burgering
90+2'
B. Burgering
90+3'
B. Burgering

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barendrecht vs GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat Barendrecht 4-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 27, 2023.

Goals: J. Jongman (3', 30', 51' pen), G. Sille (9'), B. Burgering (87', 90+2', 90+3').

The match was played at Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 in Barendrecht.