Barendrecht 2–0 GVV Unitas: Result & Stats

Barendrecht

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GVV Unitas

11/18/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 13Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barendrecht64%

×Draw19%

GVV Unitas17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarendrechtExpected goals in this matchGVV Unitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.08

Barendrecht

2.27

GVV Unitas

1.08

Barendrecht creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

2.47

creates per match

1.22

0.94

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Barendrecht

2.47

GVV Unitas

1.22

allows per match

Barendrecht

0.94

GVV Unitas

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

GVV Unitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw

83%

Barendrecht or GVV Unitas

81%

Draw or GVV Unitas

36%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+

41%

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals

90%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

66%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

39%

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

66%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

29%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

79%

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.47 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.27

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Barendrecht defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Barendrecht scores more

64%

level

19%

GVV Unitas scores more

17%

Barendrecht at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff