Barendrecht 3–1 Groene Ster: Result & Stats

Barendrecht

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Groene Ster

5/4/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 31Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barendrecht65%

×Draw20%

Groene Ster15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarendrechtExpected goals in this matchGroene Ster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.94

Barendrecht

2.15

Groene Ster

0.94

Barendrecht creates 129% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

2.47

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Barendrecht

2.47

Groene Ster

0.94

allows per match

Barendrecht

0.94

Groene Ster

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

Groene Ster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw

85%

Barendrecht or Groene Ster

80%

Draw or Groene Ster

35%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+

41%

Groene Ster wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals

88%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

63%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

36%

Groene Ster 1+ goals

61%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

24%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

81%

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.47 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.15

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Barendrecht defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barendrecht scores more

65%

level

20%

Groene Ster scores more

15%

Barendrecht at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff