Barendrecht 4–2 Baronie: Result & Stats

Barendrecht

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Baronie

4/13/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 29Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barendrecht68%

×Draw17%

Baronie14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarendrechtExpected goals in this matchBaronie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.07

Barendrecht

2.52

Baronie

1.07

Barendrecht creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

2.47

creates per match

1.21

0.94

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Barendrecht

2.47

Baronie

1.21

allows per match

Barendrecht

0.94

Baronie

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

Baronie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw

86%

Barendrecht or Baronie

83%

Draw or Baronie

32%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+

46%

Baronie wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals

92%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

71%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

45%

Baronie 1+ goals

66%

Baronie 2+ goals

29%

Baronie 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

83%

Baronie (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.47 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.52

Baronie attack 1.21 + Barendrecht defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Barendrecht scores more

68%

level

17%

Baronie scores more

14%

Barendrecht at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff