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Barendrecht vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Barendrecht
Barendrecht
FT
1 – 1
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
2/15/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 22Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 (Barendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barendrecht53%
×Draw21%
Ajax Amateurs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barendrecht
2.05
Ajax Amateurs
1.35

Barendrecht creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 49 away

creates per match

Barendrecht
2.07
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

Barendrecht
1.59
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw
75%
Barendrecht or Ajax Amateurs
79%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
47%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+
31%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals
87%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
61%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
33%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
74%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
39%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)
68%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.07 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Barendrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barendrecht scores more
53%
level
21%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
25%

Barendrecht at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barendrecht vs Ajax Amateurs

Barendrecht and Ajax Amateurs drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 (Barendrecht).