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Baré vs Juventude MA — Serie D 2018

Baré
Baré
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventude MA
Juventude MA
10/22/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 8Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Baré40%
×Draw29%
Juventude MA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baré
1.20
Juventude MA
1.04

Baré creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

Baré
1.27
Juventude MA
1.00

allows per match

Baré
1.09
Juventude MA
1.13

finishing

Baré+0.00on par
Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baré ↓

Juventude MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baré or draw
68%
Baré or Juventude MA
71%
Draw or Juventude MA
60%

Winning margin

Baré wins by 2+
17%
Juventude MA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baré 1+ goals
70%
Baré 2+ goals
34%
Baré 3+ goals
12%
Juventude MA 1+ goals
65%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
28%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baré (draw refunded)
56%
Juventude MA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baré at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baré attack 1.27 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Baré defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baré scores more
40%
level
29%
Juventude MA scores more
32%

Baré at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baré vs Juventude MA

Juventude MA beat Baré 1-0 in Serie D on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos in Boa Vista, Roraima.