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Barco vs Somozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barco
Barco
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Somozas
Somozas
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Barco40%
×Draw28%
Somozas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barco
1.26
Somozas
1.08

Barco creates 17% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 109 away

creates per match

Barco
1.32
Somozas
1.05

allows per match

Barco
1.10
Somozas
1.20

finishing

Barco+0.00on par
Somozas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barco ↓

Somozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barco or draw
68%
Barco or Somozas
72%
Draw or Somozas
60%

Winning margin

Barco wins by 2+
18%
Somozas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barco 1+ goals
72%
Barco 2+ goals
36%
Barco 3+ goals
13%
Somozas 1+ goals
66%
Somozas 2+ goals
29%
Somozas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barco (draw refunded)
56%
Somozas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Somozas away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barco attack 1.32 + Somozas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Somozas attack 1.05 + Barco defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barco scores more
40%
level
28%
Somozas scores more
32%

Barco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Barco 1–2 Somozas

Somozas beat Barco 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros in O Barco de Valdeorras.