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Barco vs Ribadumia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barco
Barco
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ribadumia
Ribadumia
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barco47%
×Draw26%
Ribadumia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barco
1.46
Ribadumia
1.02

Barco creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barco
1.32
Ribadumia
0.94

allows per match

Barco
1.10
Ribadumia
1.59

finishing

Barco+0.00on par
Ribadumia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barco ↓

Ribadumia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barco or draw
74%
Barco or Ribadumia
74%
Draw or Ribadumia
53%

Winning margin

Barco wins by 2+
23%
Ribadumia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barco 1+ goals
77%
Barco 2+ goals
43%
Barco 3+ goals
18%
Ribadumia 1+ goals
64%
Ribadumia 2+ goals
27%
Ribadumia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barco (draw refunded)
64%
Ribadumia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Ribadumia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barco attack 1.32 + Ribadumia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ribadumia attack 0.94 + Barco defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barco scores more
47%
level
26%
Ribadumia scores more
26%

Barco at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barco vs Ribadumia

Barco beat Ribadumia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros in O Barco de Valdeorras.