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Barco vs As Pontes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barco
Barco
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
As Pontes
As Pontes
5/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 9Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Barco53%
×Draw25%
As Pontes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barco
1.58
As Pontes
0.92

Barco creates 72% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 31 away

creates per match

Barco
1.32
As Pontes
0.74

allows per match

Barco
1.10
As Pontes
1.84

finishing

Barco+0.00on par
As Pontes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barco ↓

As Pontes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barco or draw
78%
Barco or As Pontes
75%
Draw or As Pontes
47%

Winning margin

Barco wins by 2+
28%
As Pontes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Barco 1+ goals
79%
Barco 2+ goals
47%
Barco 3+ goals
21%
As Pontes 1+ goals
60%
As Pontes 2+ goals
23%
As Pontes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barco (draw refunded)
71%
As Pontes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

As Pontes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barco attack 1.32 + As Pontes defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.58

As Pontes attack 0.74 + Barco defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barco scores more
53%
level
25%
As Pontes scores more
22%

Barco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Barco 3–2 As Pontes

Barco beat As Pontes 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros in O Barco de Valdeorras.