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Barcia vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barcia
Barcia
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Praviano
Praviano
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia20%
×Draw22%
Praviano58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcia
1.05
Praviano
1.92

Praviano creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

Barcia
0.88
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

Barcia
2.65
Praviano
1.23

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barcia or draw
42%
Barcia or Praviano
78%
Draw or Praviano
80%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+
7%
Praviano wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals
65%
Barcia 2+ goals
28%
Barcia 3+ goals
9%
Praviano 1+ goals
85%
Praviano 2+ goals
57%
Praviano 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)
26%
Praviano (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Praviano attack 1.18 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Barcia scores more
20%
level
22%
Praviano scores more
58%

Praviano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Barcia 3–4 Praviano

Praviano beat Barcia 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Sebastián in Barcia.