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Barcia vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barcia
Barcia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Luarca
Luarca
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia29%
×Draw24%
Luarca47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcia
1.30
Luarca
1.70

Luarca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Barcia
0.88
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Barcia
2.65
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barcia or draw
53%
Barcia or Luarca
76%
Draw or Luarca
71%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+
13%
Luarca wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals
73%
Barcia 2+ goals
37%
Barcia 3+ goals
14%
Luarca 1+ goals
82%
Luarca 2+ goals
51%
Luarca 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)
39%
Luarca (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Luarca attack 0.75 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcia scores more
29%
level
24%
Luarca scores more
47%

Luarca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcia vs Luarca

Luarca beat Barcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Sebastián in Barcia.