Barcia 0–5 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Barcia

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Lealtad

10/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia14%

×Draw20%

Lealtad65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarciaExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.03

Barcia

0.83

Lealtad

2.03

Lealtad creates 145% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

0.88

creates per match

1.41

2.65

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Barcia

0.88

Lealtad

1.41

allows per match

Barcia

2.65

Lealtad

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Lealtad →

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Barcia or draw

35%

Barcia or Lealtad

80%

Draw or Lealtad

86%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+

Lealtad wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals

56%

Barcia 2+ goals

20%

Barcia 3+ goals

Lealtad 1+ goals

87%

Lealtad 2+ goals

60%

Lealtad 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)

18%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barcia scores more

14%

level

20%

Lealtad scores more

65%

Lealtad at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff