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Barcia vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barcia
Barcia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia29%
×Draw23%
Avilés Stadium48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcia
1.31
Avilés Stadium
1.75

Avilés Stadium creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Barcia
0.88
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Barcia
2.65
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Barcia or draw
52%
Barcia or Avilés Stadium
77%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
71%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+
12%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals
73%
Barcia 2+ goals
38%
Barcia 3+ goals
14%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
83%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
52%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)
38%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barcia scores more
29%
level
23%
Avilés Stadium scores more
48%

Avilés Stadium at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avilés Stadium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcia vs Avilés Stadium

Barcia and Avilés Stadium drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Sebastián in Barcia.