Barcelona W 6–0 Rosengård W: Result & Stats

Barcelona W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rosengård W

12/21/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6Spotify Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Barcelona W81%

×Draw12%

Rosengård W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona WExpected goals in this matchRosengård W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

0.98

Barcelona W

3.33

Rosengård W

0.98

Barcelona W creates 240% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 12 away

4.17

creates per match

1.33

0.63

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Barcelona W

4.17

Rosengård W

1.33

allows per match

Barcelona W

0.63

Rosengård W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Rosengård W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw

92%

Barcelona W or Rosengård W

88%

Draw or Rosengård W

19%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+

63%

Rosengård W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals

96%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

84%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

63%

Rosengård W 1+ goals

62%

Rosengård W 2+ goals

26%

Rosengård W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

91%

Rosengård W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.63 · 35 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.17 + Rosengård W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.33

Rosengård W attack 1.33 + Barcelona W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Barcelona W scores more

81%

level

12%

Rosengård W scores more

8%

Barcelona W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff