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Barcelona W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
FT
10 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Granada
Granada
Alexia Putellas 90+3' (pen), 44' (pen)
Aitana Bonmatí 78'
E. Pajor 69', 45+3', 2'
C. Graham Hansen 65'
F. Rolfö 60'
Cristina Postigo 45+1' (OG)
Marta Torrejón 35'
Ornella Vignola 55'
9/28/2024Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 4Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barcelona W83%
×Draw11%
Granada6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.32
Granada
0.84

Barcelona W creates 295% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 45 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Granada
1.71

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
94%
Barcelona W or Granada
89%
Draw or Granada
17%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
66%
Granada wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
96%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
84%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
62%
Granada 1+ goals
57%
Granada 2+ goals
21%
Granada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
93%
Granada (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 3.32

Granada attack 1.24 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Barcelona W scores more
83%
level
11%
Granada scores more
6%

Barcelona W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. Graham HansenBarcelona WBarcelona W · M
9.3

Match Events

2'
E. Pajor↳ C. Graham Hansen
35'
Marta Torrejón↳ Alexia Putellas
44'
Alexia PutellasPenalty
45+1'
Cristina PostigoOwn goal
45+3'
E. Pajor↳ C. Graham Hansen
46'
Ariadna Mingueza← Leles
50'
Jujuba
55'
Ornella Vignola↳ Laura Pérez
60'
Aitana Bonmatí← Vicky López
60'
Jana Fernández← Ona Batlle
60'
F. Rolfö↳ Clàudia Pina
61'
Paula Arana← Lauri
61'
Alba Pérez← Jujuba Cardozo
65'
C. Graham Hansen↳ Aitana Bonmatí
69'
E. Pajor
72'
Kika Nazareth← E. Pajor
72'
E. Brugts← F. Rolfö
72'
Amaia Iribarren← Miku Kojima
77'
Marta Carrasco← Laura Pérez
78'
Martina Fernández← Clàudia Pina
78'
Aitana Bonmatí
90+3'
Alexia PutellasPenalty

Possession

71%Barcelona

Shots

26Barcelona

Pass accuracy

57%Barcelona

Statistics

BarcelonaGranada
Overview
71%Possession29%
26Total Shots7
4Corners1
4Fouls13
Shots
26Total Shots7
16On Target3
4Off Target3
6Blocked1
23Inside Box2
3Outside Box5
Passing
71%Possession29%
652Total Passes270
576Accurate Passes177
88%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
4Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Barcelona W vs Granada

Barcelona W beat Granada 10-1 in Primera División Femenina on September 28, 2024.

Goals: E. Pajor (2', 45+3', 69'), Marta Torrejón (35'), Alexia Putellas (44' pen, 90+3' pen), Cristina Postigo (45+1' o.g.), Ornella Vignola (55'), F. Rolfö (60'), C. Graham Hansen (65'), Aitana Bonmatí (78').

Barcelona W controlled possession (71%) and registered 26 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.