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Barcelona W vs Alhama W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alhama W
Alhama W
12/10/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 12Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Barcelona W90%
×Draw7%
Alhama W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.80
Alhama W
0.62

Barcelona W creates 513% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Alhama W
0.80

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Alhama W
2.67

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Alhama W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Alhama W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
97%
Barcelona W or Alhama W
93%
Draw or Alhama W
10%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
76%
Alhama W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
98%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
88%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
70%
Alhama W 1+ goals
46%
Alhama W 2+ goals
13%
Alhama W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
97%
Alhama W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Alhama W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Alhama W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.80

Alhama W attack 0.80 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Barcelona W scores more
90%
level
7%
Alhama W scores more
3%

Barcelona W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona W vs Alhama W

Barcelona W beat Alhama W 4-0 in Primera División Femenina on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.