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Barcelona vs Plzen — UEFA Champions League 2018

Barcelona
Barcelona
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
9/7/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group C - 1Spotify Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Barcelona61%
×Draw19%
Plzen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona
2.45
Plzen
1.35

Barcelona creates 81% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barcelona
2.36
Plzen
1.08

allows per match

Barcelona
1.61
Plzen
2.54

finishing

Barcelona+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw
80%
Barcelona or Plzen
81%
Draw or Plzen
39%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+
40%
Plzen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals
91%
Barcelona 2+ goals
70%
Barcelona 3+ goals
44%
Plzen 1+ goals
74%
Plzen 2+ goals
39%
Plzen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)
75%
Plzen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.36 + Plzen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.45

Plzen attack 1.08 + Barcelona defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barcelona scores more
61%
level
19%
Plzen scores more
20%

Barcelona at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Barcelona 5–1 Plzen

Barcelona beat Plzen 5-1 in UEFA Champions League on September 7, 2022.

The match was played at Spotify Camp Nou in Barcelona.