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Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
8/31/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 27Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Barcelona SC47%
×Draw25%
Universidad Catolica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona SC
1.56
Universidad Catolica
1.13

Barcelona SC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 131 away

creates per match

Barcelona SC
1.87
Universidad Catolica
1.41

allows per match

Barcelona SC
0.85
Universidad Catolica
1.25

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw
72%
Barcelona SC or Universidad Catolica
75%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
53%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+
24%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals
79%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
46%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
21%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
68%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
31%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
63%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Barcelona SC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona SC scores more
47%
level
25%
Universidad Catolica scores more
28%

Barcelona SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Barcelona SC 2–3 Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Barcelona SC 3-2 in Liga Pro on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.