Barcelona SC 0–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro

Matheus Pereira 53'

4/8/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona SC29%

×Draw33%

Cruzeiro38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.97

Barcelona SC

0.80

Cruzeiro

0.97

Cruzeiro creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

1.43

creates per match

0.83

1.10

allows per match

0.17

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.43

Cruzeiro

0.83

allows per match

Barcelona SC

1.10

Cruzeiro

0.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

62%

Barcelona SC or Cruzeiro

67%

Draw or Cruzeiro

71%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

9%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

55%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

19%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

5%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

62%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

25%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

43%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.43 + Cruzeiro defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Cruzeiro attack 0.83 + Barcelona SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

29%

level

33%

Cruzeiro scores more

38%

Cruzeiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Fagner

Cruzeiro · D

8.3

Match Events

53'

Matheus Pereira↳ Fagner

60'

Wanderson← K. Arroyo

64'

Matheus Henrique← Gerson

69'

M. Celiz

71'

J. Intriago← M. Celiz

71'

H. Villalba← L. Sosa

74'

Chico← Kaio Jorge

75'

L. Villalba← Jonathan Jesus

79'

Matheus Henrique

80'

T. Martinez← J. R. Quinonez Ruiz

80'

J. Mina← G. Vallecilla

86'

M. Parrales← L. Cano

90+6'

Kaiki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaCruzeiro

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots5

0.52Expected Goals (xG)2.13

5Corners0

16Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots5

2On Target3

6Off Target2

10Blocked0

9Inside Box5

9Outside Box0

Passing

55%Possession45%

365Total Passes320

287Accurate Passes234

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.09Goals Prevented0.09

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2