Barcelona SC 1–1 Aucas: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Barcelona SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aucas

O. Rivero 5'

A. Rangel 45' (OG)

9/28/2025

Liga Pro · Round 30Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barcelona SC44%

×Draw27%

Aucas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Barcelona SC

1.39

Aucas

1.06

Barcelona SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.19

0.94

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.40

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.94

Aucas

1.37

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Barcelona SC-0.20scores less

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

71%

Barcelona SC or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

56%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

21%

Aucas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

75%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

40%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

16%

Aucas 1+ goals

65%

Aucas 2+ goals

29%

Aucas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

61%

Aucas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.40 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aucas attack 1.19 + Barcelona SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

44%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

29%

Barcelona SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Valiente

Barcelona SC · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

O. Rivero↳ J. Valiente

45'

A. RangelOwn goal

46'

J. Uchuari← V. Olaya

60'

Óscar Pepinos

62'

B. Oyola← D. Arroyo

75'

F. Caicedo← J. Valiente

78'

Jhonny Quiñónez

78'

C. Rolon← B. Miranda

81'

J. Rojas← J. Corozo

82'

Y. Garcia← J. R. Quinonez Ruiz

88'

A. L. Spina← A. Mina

90+7'

J. Cabezas← E. Resendez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaAucas

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots14

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.89

10Corners6

4Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target8

7Off Target4

1Blocked2

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

521Total Passes337

438Accurate Passes255

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3