Barcelona RO 1–0 Sao Raimundo: Result & Stats

Barcelona RO

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Raimundo

Marco Aurelio 68'

6/1/2019

Serie D · Round 5Estádio Portal da Amazônia (Vilhena, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona RO53%

×Draw26%

Sao Raimundo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona ROExpected goals in this matchSao Raimundo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

Barcelona RO

1.52

Sao Raimundo

0.85

Barcelona RO creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 49 away

1.67

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Barcelona RO

1.67

Sao Raimundo

0.88

allows per match

Barcelona RO

0.83

Sao Raimundo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona RO+0.00on par

Sao Raimundo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona RO ↓

Sao Raimundo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barcelona RO or draw

79%

Barcelona RO or Sao Raimundo

74%

Draw or Sao Raimundo

47%

Winning margin

Barcelona RO wins by 2+

27%

Sao Raimundo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barcelona RO 1+ goals

78%

Barcelona RO 2+ goals

45%

Barcelona RO 3+ goals

20%

Sao Raimundo 1+ goals

57%

Sao Raimundo 2+ goals

21%

Sao Raimundo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Barcelona RO (draw refunded)

72%

Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona RO at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Sao Raimundo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona RO attack 1.67 + Sao Raimundo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sao Raimundo attack 0.88 + Barcelona RO defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barcelona RO scores more

53%

level

26%

Sao Raimundo scores more

21%

Barcelona RO at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barcelona RO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Kaiah← Matheus Soares

60'

Evandro← Jonatha

68'

Marco Aurelio

72'

Clebson Monga← Marcos

75'

Joao Paulo← Maranhão

82'

Matheus← Belao

83'

Leonardo← Marco Aurelio

Barcelona

Sao

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aurelio

Manager: Pauo Muller

55'▲Kaiah←▼Matheus Soares

60'▲Evandro←▼Jonatha

83'▲Leonardo←▼Marco Aurelio

Barcelona RO substitutes

KaiahEvandroLeonardoAdrianoNandoRomarinhoWellington

Manager: Chiquinho Viana

72'▲Clebson Monga←▼Marcos

75'▲Joao Paulo←▼Maranhão

82'▲Matheus←▼Belao

Sao Raimundo substitutes

MongaPauloMatheusMarcosOsmarBenicioOsiasYuri