Barcelona RO 3–1 Plácido de Castro: Result & Stats

Barcelona RO

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Plácido de Castro

5/6/2018

Serie D · Round 3Estádio Portal da Amazônia (Vilhena, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barcelona RO80%

×Draw13%

Plácido de Castro7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona ROExpected goals in this matchPlácido de Castro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.75

Barcelona RO

2.83

Plácido de Castro

0.75

Barcelona RO creates 277% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.67

0.83

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Barcelona RO

1.67

Plácido de Castro

0.67

allows per match

Barcelona RO

0.83

Plácido de Castro

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona RO+0.00on par

Plácido de Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona RO ↓

Plácido de Castro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Barcelona RO or draw

93%

Barcelona RO or Plácido de Castro

87%

Draw or Plácido de Castro

20%

Winning margin

Barcelona RO wins by 2+

59%

Plácido de Castro wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Barcelona RO 1+ goals

94%

Barcelona RO 2+ goals

77%

Barcelona RO 3+ goals

53%

Plácido de Castro 1+ goals

53%

Plácido de Castro 2+ goals

17%

Plácido de Castro 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona RO (draw refunded)

92%

Plácido de Castro (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona RO at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Plácido de Castro away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona RO attack 1.67 + Plácido de Castro defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Plácido de Castro attack 0.67 + Barcelona RO defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Barcelona RO scores more

80%

level

13%

Plácido de Castro scores more

7%

Barcelona RO at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Barcelona RO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff