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Barcelona EC vs Colorado Caieiras — Paulista Série B 2026

Barcelona EC
Barcelona EC
FT
0 – 1
Colorado Caieiras
Colorado Caieiras
4/21/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Barcelona EC16%
×Draw23%
Colorado Caieiras60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona EC
0.77
Colorado Caieiras
1.73

Colorado Caieiras creates 125% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Barcelona EC
0.44
Colorado Caieiras
0.80

allows per match

Barcelona EC
2.67
Colorado Caieiras
1.10

finishing

Barcelona EC+0.00on par
Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona EC ↓

Colorado Caieiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barcelona EC or draw
40%
Barcelona EC or Colorado Caieiras
77%
Draw or Colorado Caieiras
84%

Winning margin

Barcelona EC wins by 2+
5%
Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Barcelona EC 1+ goals
54%
Barcelona EC 2+ goals
18%
Barcelona EC 3+ goals
4%
Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals
82%
Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals
52%
Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Barcelona EC (draw refunded)
21%
Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona EC at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Colorado Caieiras away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona EC attack 0.44 + Colorado Caieiras defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.77

Colorado Caieiras attack 0.80 + Barcelona EC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Barcelona EC scores more
16%
level
23%
Colorado Caieiras scores more
60%

Colorado Caieiras at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Colorado Caieiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Barcelona EC 0–1 Colorado Caieiras

Colorado Caieiras beat Barcelona EC 1-0 in Paulista Série B on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi in São Paulo, São Paulo.