Barcelona BA 3–0 Teixeira de Freitas

Barcelona BA

FT

3 – 0

Teixeira de Freitas

11/8/2020

Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Eliel Martins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona BA89%

×Draw9%

Teixeira de Freitas2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BAExpected goals in this matchTeixeira de Freitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.25

Barcelona BA

2.79

Teixeira de Freitas

0.25

Barcelona BA creates 1016% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

0.00

0.50

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Barcelona BA

2.33

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

allows per match

Barcelona BA

0.50

Teixeira de Freitas

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–13%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–018%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw

98%

Barcelona BA or Teixeira de Freitas

91%

Draw or Teixeira de Freitas

11%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

70%

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

94%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

76%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

52%

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

22%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

3%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

98%

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 2.33 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Barcelona BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Barcelona BA scores more

89%

level

9%

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

2%

Barcelona BA at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff