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Barcelona BA vs Penedense — Serie D 2025

Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Penedense
Penedense
Lucas Peres 90'
V. Hugo Santos 90'
7/27/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Mario Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barcelona BA50%
×Draw32%
Penedense18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA
1.15
Penedense
0.57

Barcelona BA creates 102% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA
1.00
Penedense
0.29

allows per match

Barcelona BA
0.86
Penedense
1.29

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par
Penedense+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Penedense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw
82%
Barcelona BA or Penedense
68%
Draw or Penedense
50%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+
22%
Penedense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals
68%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
32%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
11%
Penedense 1+ goals
43%
Penedense 2+ goals
11%
Penedense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
73%
Penedense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Penedense away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 1.00 + Penedense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Penedense attack 0.29 + Barcelona BA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barcelona BA scores more
50%
level
32%
Penedense scores more
18%

Barcelona BA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+6'
90'
Lucas Peres
90'
V. Hugo Santos
Barcelona
Penedense
Carlos Rabello
Manager: Carlos Rabello
Jaelson Marcelino
Manager: Jaelson Marcelino

Serie D: Barcelona BA 0–1 Penedense

Penedense beat Barcelona BA 1-0 in Serie D on July 27, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Peres (90'), V. Hugo Santos (90').

The match was played at Estadio Mario Pessoa.