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Barcelona BA vs Camaçariense — Baiano - 2 2019

Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
FT
3 – 2
Camaçariense
Camaçariense
7/8/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barcelona BA67%
×Draw20%
Camaçariense13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA
2.00
Camaçariense
0.75

Barcelona BA creates 167% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA
2.33
Camaçariense
1.00

allows per match

Barcelona BA
0.50
Camaçariense
1.67

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par
Camaçariense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Camaçariense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw
87%
Barcelona BA or Camaçariense
80%
Draw or Camaçariense
33%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+
41%
Camaçariense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals
86%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
59%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
32%
Camaçariense 1+ goals
53%
Camaçariense 2+ goals
17%
Camaçariense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
84%
Camaçariense (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Camaçariense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 2.33 + Camaçariense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Camaçariense attack 1.00 + Barcelona BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Barcelona BA scores more
67%
level
20%
Camaçariense scores more
13%

Barcelona BA at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona BA vs Camaçariense

Barcelona BA beat Camaçariense 3-2 in Baiano - 2 on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.