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Barcelona BA vs ABPN Canaã — Baiano - 2 2019

Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
FT
0 – 0
ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
11/1/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Eliel Martins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona BA73%
×Draw18%
ABPN Canaã9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA
2.08
ABPN Canaã
0.57

Barcelona BA creates 265% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA
2.33
ABPN Canaã
0.64

allows per match

Barcelona BA
0.50
ABPN Canaã
1.82

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par
ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

ABPN Canaã →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw
91%
Barcelona BA or ABPN Canaã
82%
Draw or ABPN Canaã
27%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+
47%
ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals
87%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
61%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
34%
ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
43%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
11%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
89%
ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 2.33 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Barcelona BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Barcelona BA scores more
73%
level
18%
ABPN Canaã scores more
9%

Barcelona BA at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Barcelona BA 0–0 ABPN Canaã

Barcelona BA and ABPN Canaã drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Eliel Martins in Riachão do Jacuípe, Bahia.