Barcelona B 2–3 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Villarreal II

Peque 32'

E. Delgado 31'

Ahn June-Hyuk 35'

Edu Espiau 27'

Rafa Mújica 1'

2/9/2020

League #437 · Group 3 - 24Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Barcelona B51%

×Draw21%

Villarreal II28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.60

Barcelona B

2.20

Villarreal II

1.60

Barcelona B creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Barcelona B

2.40

Villarreal II

1.60

allows per match

Barcelona B

1.60

Villarreal II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Villarreal II →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

72%

Barcelona B or Villarreal II

79%

Draw or Villarreal II

49%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

31%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

89%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

64%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

37%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

80%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

47%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

64%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 2.40 + Villarreal II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Villarreal II attack 1.60 + Barcelona B defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barcelona B scores more

51%

level

21%

Villarreal II scores more

28%

Barcelona B at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

31'

32'

35'

67'

Diego Collado← Ahn June-Hyuk

67'

Fer Niño← Rafa Mújica

69'

Jorge Cuenca← Chumi Brandariz

69'

K. De La Fuente← L. Reis

82'

Álex Millán← Álex Baena

87'

Nils Mortimer← Peque

Barcelona

Villarreal

▼

⚽

▼

Mújica

⚽

Espiau

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Peque

Manager: García Pimienta

69'▲Jorge Cuenca←▼Chumi Brandariz

69'▲K. De La Fuente←▼L. Reis

87'▲Nils Mortimer←▼Peque

Barcelona B substitutes

CuencaFuenteMortimerJesúsJaimeMármolPuig

Manager: Miguel Álvarez

67'▲Diego Collado←▼Ahn June-Hyuk

67'▲Fer Niño←▼Rafa Mújica

82'▲Álex Millán←▼Álex Baena

Villarreal II substitutes

ColladoNiñoMillánMartínezAgüeroAkaleFernández

League #437: Barcelona B 2–3 Villarreal II

Villarreal II beat Barcelona B 3-2 in League #437 on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Rafa Mújica (1'), Edu Espiau (27'), E. Delgado (31'), Peque (32'), Ahn June-Hyuk (35').

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.

Barcelona B vs Villarreal II — League #437 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #437: Barcelona B 2–3 Villarreal II