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Barcelona B vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barcelona B
Barcelona B
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sabadell
Sabadell
11/11/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barcelona B55%
×Draw23%
Sabadell23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona B
1.83
Sabadell
1.09

Barcelona B creates 68% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Barcelona B
1.50
Sabadell
0.95

allows per match

Barcelona B
1.24
Sabadell
2.16

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par
Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Sabadell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw
77%
Barcelona B or Sabadell
77%
Draw or Sabadell
45%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+
31%
Sabadell wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals
84%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
54%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
28%
Sabadell 1+ goals
66%
Sabadell 2+ goals
30%
Sabadell 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)
71%
Sabadell (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.50 + Sabadell defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Barcelona B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barcelona B scores more
55%
level
23%
Sabadell scores more
23%

Barcelona B at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Sabadell

Barcelona B beat Sabadell 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.