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Barcelona B vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barcelona B
Barcelona B
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
2/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B46%
×Draw26%
Rayo Majadahonda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona B
1.48
Rayo Majadahonda
1.10

Barcelona B creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

creates per match

Barcelona B
1.50
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Barcelona B
1.24
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw
72%
Barcelona B or Rayo Majadahonda
74%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
54%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+
23%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals
77%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
43%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
19%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)
62%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.50 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Barcelona B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barcelona B scores more
46%
level
26%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
28%

Barcelona B at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Rayo Majadahonda

Barcelona B beat Rayo Majadahonda 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.