Barcelona B 2–1 Linense: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Linense

Ferran Jutglà 20'

Ángel Rodado 8'

A. Coulibaly 1'

9/24/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barcelona B56%

×Draw26%

Linense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchLinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.72

Barcelona B

1.52

Linense

0.72

Barcelona B creates 111% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

0.47

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.66

Linense

0.47

allows per match

Barcelona B

0.97

Linense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Linense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

82%

Barcelona B or Linense

74%

Draw or Linense

44%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

30%

Linense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

78%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

45%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

20%

Linense 1+ goals

51%

Linense 2+ goals

16%

Linense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

76%

Linense (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Linense attack 0.47 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barcelona B scores more

56%

level

26%

Linense scores more

18%

Barcelona B at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Coulibaly

4'

M. Marmol

8'

20'

33'

49'

51'

55'

60'

Ilias Akhomach← Nils Mortimer

65'

Leandro Martínez← A. Coulibaly

72'

Matheus Pereira← Lucas de Vega

76'

A. Bandaogo← Masllorens

76'

Óscar Arroyo← Alhassan Koroma

82'

Alusine Koroma← G. Chironi

82'

M. Cham← Loren

84'

Antonio Aranda← Ilias Akhomach

Barcelona

Linense

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Sergi Barjuan

60'▲Ilias Akhomach←▼Nils Mortimer

72'▲Matheus Pereira←▼Lucas de Vega

84'▲Antonio Aranda←▼Ilias Akhomach

Barcelona B substitutes

AkhomachPereiraArandaCasasEscobarCarevićNdiayePoloRamosAbdelkader

Manager: Romerito

65'▲Leandro Martínez←▼A. Coulibaly

76'▲A. Bandaogo←▼Masllorens

76'▲Óscar Arroyo←▼Alhassan Koroma

82'▲Alusine Koroma←▼G. Chironi

82'▲M. Cham←▼Loren

Linense substitutes

MartínezBandaogoArroyoKoromaChamLópezLavelaJaúreguiKania

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Linense

Barcelona B beat Linense 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 24, 2021.

Goals: A. Coulibaly (1'), Ángel Rodado (8'), Ferran Jutglà (20').

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.

Barcelona B vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Linense