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Barcelona B vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barcelona B
Barcelona B
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
2/12/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B52%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona B
1.74
Linares Deportivo
1.10

Barcelona B creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Barcelona B
1.66
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Barcelona B
0.97
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw
76%
Barcelona B or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
48%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+
29%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals
82%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
52%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
25%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)
69%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.74

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barcelona B scores more
52%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
24%

Barcelona B at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Linares Deportivo

Barcelona B and Linares Deportivo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.