Barcelona B 0–2 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Gimnastic

Jaume Jardí 36'

Pablo Fernández 23'

11/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B41%

×Draw28%

Gimnastic31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Barcelona B

1.27

Gimnastic

1.06

Barcelona B creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

1.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.50

Gimnastic

0.89

allows per match

Barcelona B

1.24

Gimnastic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

69%

Barcelona B or Gimnastic

72%

Draw or Gimnastic

59%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

18%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

36%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

14%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

65%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

29%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

57%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.50 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Barcelona B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barcelona B scores more

41%

level

28%

Gimnastic scores more

31%

Barcelona B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

25'

31'

36'

39'

44'

46'

46'

Raúl Dacosta← Aleix Garrido

59'

Álvaro Cortés← Andrés Cuenca

59'

N. Darvich← P. Soma

59'

Álex Jiménez← Antoñín Cortés

59'

Ander Gorostidi← Unai Dufur

59'

David Concha← Víctor Narro

65'

P. Prim

68'

Óscar Gistau← Víctor Barberá

72'

R. Dacosta

78'

Marc Fernández← Pablo Fernández

80'

A. Issah← D. Oduro

87'

A. Țîrlea← Jaume Jardí

Barcelona

Gimnastic

▼

⚽

▼

Fernández

▼

Cortés

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Albert Sánchez

46'▲Raúl Dacosta←▼Aleix Garrido

59'▲Álvaro Cortés←▼Andrés Cuenca

59'▲N. Darvich←▼P. Soma

68'▲Óscar Gistau←▼Víctor Barberá

80'▲A. Issah←▼D. Oduro

Barcelona B substitutes

DacostaCortésDarvichGistauIssahYaakobishviliSánchezHernándezPieraRodríguezEspart

Manager: Dani Vidal

59'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Antoñín Cortés

59'▲Ander Gorostidi←▼Unai Dufur

59'▲David Concha←▼Víctor Narro

78'▲Marc Fernández←▼Pablo Fernández

87'▲A. Țîrlea←▼Jaume Jardí

Gimnastic substitutes

JiménezGorostidiConchaFernándezȚîrleaLópezVicensRebolloPérezRodríguezJiménez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Barcelona B 0–2 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Barcelona B 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2024.

Goals: Pablo Fernández (23'), Jaume Jardí (36').

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.

Barcelona B vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Barcelona B 0–2 Gimnastic