Barcelona B 3–2 Castellón: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Castellón

C. Riad 90+7'

Ilias Akhomach 66'

Estanis 11'

Josep Calavera 45'

Dani Romera 42'

8/27/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B47%

×Draw26%

Castellón27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Barcelona B

1.46

Castellón

1.04

Barcelona B creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.66

creates per match

1.11

0.97

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.66

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

Barcelona B

0.97

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

73%

Barcelona B or Castellón

74%

Draw or Castellón

53%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

23%

Castellón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

77%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

43%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

18%

Castellón 1+ goals

65%

Castellón 2+ goals

28%

Castellón 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

63%

Castellón (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Castellón attack 1.11 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona B scores more

47%

level

26%

Castellón scores more

27%

Barcelona B at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Estanis

27'

M. Sanchez

41'

T. Alba

42'

Dani Romera

45'

Josep Calavera

46'

Álex Carbonell← Álvaro Sanz

65'

Javi Antón← J. de León

66'

Ilias Akhomach

70'

M. Casado

80'

Aleix Garrido← Marc Casadó

80'

J. Fuentes← Estanis

80'

Carles Salvador← K. Koné

80'

Nacho Gimeno← Josep Calavera

84'

D. Cubillas

86'

A. Nunez

90'

E. Pedrola

90+3'

David Cubillas← Dani Romera

90+7'

C. Riad

Barcelona

Castellón

⚽

▼

Calavera

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Estanis

Manager: R. Márquez

46'▲Álex Carbonell←▼Álvaro Sanz

80'▲Aleix Garrido←▼Marc Casadó

80'▲J. Fuentes←▼Estanis

Barcelona B substitutes

CarbonellGarridoFuentesCasasDemirBlancoRuizFernándezRosanasBarberá

Manager: Rubén Torrecilla

65'▲Javi Antón←▼J. de León

80'▲Carles Salvador←▼K. Koné

80'▲Nacho Gimeno←▼Josep Calavera

90+3'▲David Cubillas←▼Dani Romera

Castellón substitutes

AntónSalvadorGimenoCubillasRomeroNúñezKandoussiGalasGarcíaHamaniCosta