Barcelona B 0–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

Nili 7'

12/19/2017

Segunda División · Round 20Mini Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barcelona B35%

×Draw28%

Albacete36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Barcelona B

1.16

Albacete

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 154 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.00

Albacete

1.03

allows per match

Barcelona B

1.33

Albacete

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

64%

Barcelona B or Albacete

72%

Draw or Albacete

65%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

15%

Albacete wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

69%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

32%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

11%

Albacete 1+ goals

69%

Albacete 2+ goals

33%

Albacete 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

49%

Albacete (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.00 + Albacete defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Albacete attack 1.03 + Barcelona B defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barcelona B scores more

35%

level

28%

Albacete scores more

36%

Albacete at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Chus Herrero

Albacete · D

7.8

Match Events

4'

Nili

7'

Nili

9'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

18'

Jérémie Bela

55'

Carles Pérez← Vitinho

60'

Mariano Bittolo

65'

Rafa Gálvez

69'

F. Espíndola← J. Bela

74'

Héctor Hernández← R. Zozulya

76'

David Concha← Oriol Busquets

81'

Abel Ruiz← Dani Morer

89'

Jon Erice← Dani Rodríguez

90'

Carles Aleñá

90'

Tomeu Nadal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaAlbacete

Overview

74%Possession26%

7Total Shots10

5Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

1On Target2

1Off Target5

5Blocked3

3Inside Box2

4Outside Box8

Passing

74%Possession26%

634Total Passes218

537Accurate Passes137

85%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Albacete

Albacete beat Barcelona B 1-0 in Segunda División on December 19, 2017.

Goals: Nili (7').

Barcelona B controlled possession (74%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mini Estadi in Barcelona.

Barcelona B vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Albacete